Page 35 - Working Paper (Metode dan Teknik Proyeksi Penerimaan Pajak: Panduan dan Aplikasi)

Lampiran 6 – Hasil Proyeksi dengan Metode AR(2) DOD

Tahun AR(2) Cons Beta Beta2 RMSE
2019 -97719,8426 8532,067 -0,88636 -0,5762 45967
1.387,274 -105219 -1033,12
2018 15389,58469 4437,562 -0,85895 -0,52718 41811
1.216,765 -1540,1 12492,12
2017 21065,92497 5229,122 -0,8669 -0,5301 42598
1.174,447 20541,97 -4705,16
2016 10,318 6687,868 -0,87142 -0,54293 43016
1.142,987 -7734,77 11365,14
2015 29017,08714 7618,053 -0,88232 -0,55138 43906
1.084,706 18469,55 2929,48
Sumber: Dikalkukasi Tim Penulis

Lampiran 7 - AR(1) dan AR(2) Non DOD
Non Stasioner RMSE
2019 AR(1) 17543,91 1,071784 40533
1.432,389 1.414.845

AR(2) 21141,36 0,914257 0,166855 41563
1.420,783 1.206.896 192746,1

2018 AR(1) 20251,65 1,057716 38895
1.242,098 1.221.846

AR(2) 22482,22 0,986614 0,074939 40242
1.245,298 1.139.711 83105,33
2017 AR(1) 18487,46 1,067386 38752
1.202,189 1.183.702

AR(2) 21407,32 0,91777 0,016194 39859
1.056,430 1.017.782 17239,77
2016 AR(1) 16063,19 1,081347 38120
1.167,227 1.151.164

AR(2) 19261,56 0,860925 0,242375 38770
1.177,289 916.511 241516,7
2015 AR(1) 14371,76 1,091833 38323
1.102,341 1.087.969

AR(2) 17374,6 0,790557 0,338342 38282
1.122,240 787.759 317105,6
2014 AR(1) 11570,26 1,110332 37828
1.052,210 1.040.640
AR(2) 13956,23 0,728911 0,436449 36676
1.071,183 683159,8 374067,8
Sumber: Dikalkukasi Tim Penulis

33